關(guān)鍵字：DRAM
2011-2013年DRAM市場供需變化
SOURCE: IDC, Gartner, Barclays Research estimates
新市場的特性
Barclays預(yù)計，基于寡頭市場和產(chǎn)業(yè)遷移仍存在難點，DRAM市場將經(jīng)歷一個風(fēng)平浪靜且漫長的復(fù)蘇階段。而到2013年，服務(wù)器/移動設(shè)備取代PC成為需求增長點，將帶給DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)一個更好的平穩(wěn)增長模式。
在爾必達破產(chǎn)并解決了資產(chǎn)處置問題后，DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)將越來越像NAND產(chǎn)業(yè)，在供求和定價上也將變得愈加理性。Barclays 認(rèn)為，爾必達遭遇滑鐵盧的境遇就如2009年上半年的SK海力士。美光對爾必達的極具戰(zhàn)略性的收購將促使DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)更好地復(fù)蘇。Barclays還聲稱，促使市場復(fù)蘇最關(guān)鍵的還是瑞晶（全球7%產(chǎn)能）和爾必達廣島廠（全球10%產(chǎn)能）的產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)向非DRAM制造。
2011-2013年全球DRAM晶圓產(chǎn)能分析(基于12英寸晶圓)
SOURCE: IDC, Barclays Research estimates
如何產(chǎn)生影響
DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)的波動周期將變窄，因為越來越多的需求是來自于專業(yè)領(lǐng)域：庫存趨于穩(wěn)定，產(chǎn)品定制化。而且，寡頭時代的頂級廠商也能以更具前瞻性的眼光來控制供應(yīng)量，保持市場供應(yīng)的穩(wěn)定。另外，經(jīng)過長時間的行業(yè)不景氣后，大浪淘沙下，存活下來的DRAM廠家是少且優(yōu)的，這也意味著行業(yè)的波動趨向平穩(wěn)。
在需求方面，即將推出的三星Galaxy S III LTE版將配置2GB DRAM（在Galaxy S III 3G版中僅為1GB），蘋果iPhone 5將配置1GB DRAM（iPhone 4S僅為512MB），這將顯著地增加2012年第三季度對移動DRAM的需求，并使得產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)趨向緊張。同時，僅此兩種產(chǎn)品的單設(shè)備DRAM配置容量增長已相當(dāng)于額外增加了1000萬顆PC DRAM需求，近乎2012年第二季PC DRAM需求的5%。而在服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域，單設(shè)備DRAM配置容量增長也相當(dāng)于200萬顆，近乎1%的PC需求。
Global DRAM recovery: Is DRAM becoming NAND-like?
The dynamic random access memory (DRAM) recovery is sustainable into 2013, say Barclays Capital analysts. DRAM benefits from a supply discipline that was bolstered by oligopoly/DRAM consolidation and the Elpida bankruptcy; robust demand growth from non-PC applications (server/mobile DRAM bit demand to exceed PC for the first time in 2013E); and potential for additional positives related to Elpida (Hiroshima/Rexchip converted to non-DRAM).
[Figure 1. DRAM supply/demand. SOURCE: IDC, Gartner, Barclays Research estimates.]
Figure 1. DRAM supply/demand. SOURCE: IDC, Gartner, Barclays Research estimates.
What is different from previous cycles? Barclays expects a less dynamic but longer-lived recovery given the oligopoly situation and technological difficulties in geometry migration; and server/mobile DRAM becoming the demand driver, supplanting PC, in 2013, offering a better growth profile and much less volatility.
The DRAM industry is becoming increasingly similar to the NAND industry, and will see an even more rational supply/pricing environment, once Elpida's bankruptcy and asset sale are resolved. Barclays sees the Elpida situation as similar to SK Hynix's stumble in NAND in H1 2009. Micron's strategic choice post acquisition of Elpida could trigger an even better DRAM recovery. The best case scenario would be the disposal of Rexchip (7% of global capacity) and some of Hiroshima fab (10%) migrating to non-DRAM manufacturing, Barclays asserts. Also read: DRAM partially recovers thanks to Elpida bankruptcy
[Figure 2. Global DRAM wafer capacity status. Note: Based on 12-inch wafers. SOURCE: IDC, Barclays Research estimates]
Figure 2. Global DRAM wafer capacity status. Note: Based on 12-inch wafers. SOURCE: IDC, Barclays Research estimates
What does this mean for share price performance? The peak and the trough of the DRAM cycle will narrow as more demand comes from specialty DRAM, which has less inventory swing, being a more customized product; and more proactive supply control by top-tier manufacturers after becoming an oligopoly. Following a prolonged industry downturn, there are currently fewer players in DRAM market, reducing volatility.
The launch of Samsung’s Galaxy S III LTE, which may adopt 2GB DRAM (vs 1GB of 3G Galaxy S III) and Apple’s iPhone 5, which may adopt 1GB DRAM (vs 512MB iPhone 4S) will significantly boost mobile DRAM demand from Q3 2012, driving tight supply. The impact of DRAM content per box growth for just these two models offers the equivalent of 10 million units of additional PC demand (5% of total PC demand) in H2 2012, Barclays estimates. In servers, an incremental increase in content per server should offer the equivalent of 2 million PCs (1% of total PC demand).
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